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THE DEPRESSING ECONOMICS OF THE VIRUS


This is going to be one long, hard, harrowing grind of a time. The anxieties over eluding and surviving the coronavirus could soon be superseded by the dreadful economic realities that follow in its wake, and which are sure to bring shuddering from further deeper agonies. Increasingly, the worst of times are envisioned and actually publicly forecasted.

We have lost the space to play and to watch others at play. And when the ability to work and live a dignified existence is taken away, there is not much that is left. For when there come those lingering gruelling times where there is failure of hope, there is dashing of dreams, then for many life loses not only its settling anchors, but its guiding lodestars.

All of this is what stares in the face, with the grimmest of countenances. When to relax lockdowns, how quickly, or carefully and wisely, to reopen the economy, in which direction and at what rate, with what unconquered optimism to face the future and its near and far horizons. These are the fundamental issues, the daunting questions, that stare down in the most frightening of unmoving specters, the most chilling of realities.

Enormous business haemorrhages, unimaginable job losses, incalculable social and psychic anguishes, all form inerasable characteristics of the alarm bells ringing incessantly and at the highest volumes. We are not of the shrinking variety, but we falter, and have to dig deep for the confidence-inducing faith that buoys and floats to what we believe are rescuing shores. It is that we will find a way, have to find our way out of the immense stockpiles of debris that litter already and which must be cleared first before we can progress a single centimetre next.

A reeling world brought to its knees already calculates what is required to rise from the prostrations to which it has been lowered, forced. Returning to the beginning for some kind of restarting is sure to be the shakiest of undertakings, the hardest of traumatic struggles disabled by limited breath and severely diminished financial strength. Calamity piles upon catastrophe. But continue we must, if only to go on to something.

And that is the tiny morsel of companionship that we at this paper offer our fellow citizens, brethren all, at this most challenging of times. Recently, the World Health Organisation said we need prepare for the worst. It is not alarmist, nor the ungrounded worrying of pessimists, but the reality of a very real threat. Neither should the warning from the private sector that “International sanctions could lead to decay -the death of business in six months.

As the world goes, in its supply chains, the strength of its demand, the pace and depth of any recovery, Zambia is sure to go as well. In an increasingly interconnected world, we cannot escape unscathed; we will feel some considerable pain. And as much as we regret having to say so, it is almost guaranteed. The oil-on which we wasted so much passion and energy, its rich visions that fuelled so much quarrelling and fighting, and its politics that so grievously divided us – faces the most up heaving of volatile futures going forward. The high widespread demand that pushed prices upward has all but collapsed.

Our hope and plea as small businesses in the education sector is for some semblance of sanity to succeed in bringing us together, if only for us to consider other possibilities. This virus has opened our eyes, it should potentially devastate our purses, and lay bare our pantries and pots. Out of nothing, there has to come, the resolve to lift this society out of its unforgiving camps, to claw for a way out of the depths that maroon us and magnify our woes.

There is no easy way for the government to readily provide the perfect amount of support and credit to small businesses. Every path forward is fraught. Depending on how the next few months play out, a critical reassessment of the country’s reliance on banks and other financial middlemen in crisis situations may well be warranted. For now, however, the government’s capacity to help small businesses depends on harnessing and directing existing credit intermediaries. Failing to provide sufficient access to credit poses much greater downside risk than the complications that inevitably arise in efforts to harness the infrastructure embedded in lenders.

The Lusaka Times reports that “Finance Minister Dr Bwalya Ng’andu says there has been low uptake by Businesses of the K10 Billion Stimulus Package set aside by the Bank of Zambia for economic recovery amidst the Coronavirus pandemic. Dr Ng’andu says the lack of information on the stimulus package among the intended beneficiaries has led to few of them accessing the facility from Commercial Banks”. The issue here is not lack of information but merely the lack of capacity to meet the credit requirements set by the FSPs appointed to disburse the funds. Loan facilities may not work for all businesses as some businesses came into being just a few months before the covid-19, consequently they do meet some of the lending requirements set by the FSPs.

If you peel back the skin of an FSP, what you find underneath is a finance company. Finance companies borrow in the capital markets and lend that money to customers. In good times, this model works well. But when funding from the central bank comes with nonflexible conditions or prohibitively expensive, a finance company quickly hits the wall and can’t provide new credit to its customers.

The technology is against us, the virus is against us, the finances are against us. This is the absolute worst time for us to be pitted against one another. In a canvas of worst-case scenarios, there is none worse. As there is consideration of all of this, the interests and inclinations must come for us to link minds and hearts to lead the way to a different light.

Let there be the most serious of commitments to do so now. Then actually do so and deliver us from the trials that hover. May we be sensible. May we be receptive and responsive to what is shared and strongly suggested on this Sunday.

Comments

  1. Eye opening article but you the writer you seem to have a lot of information that can emancipate or liberate many mindset and attitudes but I have a feeling you are sensoring a lot of info for the reason known to you I can only speculate or guess that you are afraid to injure some section of society.

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